Optimal emergency hospitals construction in an unexpected epidemic with considering the interactive effect

Abstract

Constructing emergency hospitals is one of the most critical measures to defeat an unexpected epidemic. However, existing operations research (OR) studies rarely consider the interactive effect between the construction of emergency hospitals and the dynamics of epidemic transmission. Inspired by this gap, we propose a new modeling framework for decision-making in emergency hospital construction. In our optimization model, we address the pandemic evolution functions as constraints. We also consider the heterogeneity among infected individuals, distinguishing between those with mild and severe symptoms, each requiring treatment in different types of emergency hospitals. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model. Our model can envision the current and future evolution of the epidemic and the impact of different decisions regarding emergency hospital construction on epidemic development. Simultaneously, it provides the optimal strategy to build hospitals and minimize the total number of untreated patients due to the disease. The proposed model is tested using the Covid-19 outbreak case in Wuhan. The results can provide precise guidelines for emergency hospitals construction, including timing and capacity, and offer decision boundaries for policymakers considering the uncertainty of disease transmission. Furthermore, our decision-making framework is general and can be adapted to study other epidemics.