Links between Oil Prices and Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence from Oil-importing versus Oil-exporting Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the short-and long-term dynamics between oil prices and stock market indices in several emerging markets, distinguishing between oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. We use daily oil price data and thirteen stock market indices, covering the period from January 04, 2010 to December 31, 2019. The results of the Granger causality test reveal a significant short-term relationship, with stock indices influencing oil prices in exporting countries, while the reverse is true for importers. Long-term cointegration approaches confirm a stable relationship for both groups, with a consistent impact of stock markets on oil prices in exporting countries. However, for importing countries, the results remain heterogeneous, reflecting varied dynamics.