A Review of Research on Tropical Air-Sea Interaction, ENSO Dynamics, and ENSO Prediction in China

Abstract

Remarkable progress has been made in observations, theories, and simulations of the ocean-atmosphere system, laying a solid foundation for the improvement of short-term climate prediction, among which Chinese scientists have made important contributions. This paper reviews Chinese research on tropical air-sea interaction, ENSO dynamics, and ENSO prediction in the past 70 years. Review of the tropical air-sea interaction mainly focuses on four aspects: characteristics of the tropical Pacific climate system and ENSO; main modes of tropical Indian Ocean SSTs and their interactions with the tropical Pacific; main modes of tropical Atlantic SSTs and inter-basin interactions; and influences of the mid-high-latitude air-sea system on ENSO. Review of the ENSO dynamics involves seven aspects: fundamental theories of ENSO; diagnosis and simulation of ENSO; the two types of ENSO; mechanisms of ENSO initiation; the interactions between ENSO and other phenomena; external forcings and teleconnections; and climate change and the ENSO response. The ENSO prediction part briefly summarizes the dynamical-statistical methods used in ENSO prediction, as well as the operational ENSO prediction systems and their applications. Lastly, we discuss some of the issues in these areas that are in need of further study.