Unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma: do we know who survives?

Abstract

Background: This study attempts to define clinical predictors of survival in patients with unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma (UPA). Methods: A retrospective study of 94 consecutive patients diagnosed with UPA from 2001 to 2006 was performed. Using data for these patients, a symptom score was devised through a forward stepwise Cox proportional hazards model based on four weighted criteria: weight loss of >10% of body weight; pain; jaundice, and smoking. The symptom score was subsequently validated in a distinct cohort of 32 patients diagnosed with UPA in 2007. Results: In the original cohort, the overall median survival was 9.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.6–10.4). This altered to 10.3 months (95% CI 6.1–14.5) in patients with locally advanced disease, and 6.6 months (95% CI 4.2–9.0) in patients with distant metastasis. Median survival was 14.6 months (95% CI 13.1–16.1) in patients with a low symptom (LS) score and 6.3 months (95% CI 4.1–8.5) in patients with a high symptom (HS) score. A total of 73% of LS score patients survived beyond 9 months, compared with only 38% of HS score patients (P < 0.001). The discrimination of the LS score was greater than that of any conventional method, including imaging. The validation cohort confirmed the discriminative ability of the symptom score for survival. Conclusions: A simple and clinically meaningful point-based symptom score can successfully predict survival in patients with UPA.