Tariff Policies, Animal Disease Risks, and Food Security: A Comparative Simulation of West African and U.S. Agricultural Systems

Abstract

Agricultural systems are increasingly shaped by the intersection of trade policies, biosecurity risks, and the overarching imperative of food security. Tariff regimes influence the cost, accessibility, and competitiveness of livestock and poultry products, while outbreaks of transboundary animal diseases such as avian influenza or foot-and-mouth disease disrupt supply chains and strain public health systems. From a global perspective, the balance between liberalized trade and protective tariffs remains delicate, particularly when weighed against the need to maintain resilient and safe food systems. This study employs a comparative simulation model to examine the interactions between tariff policies, animal disease risks, and food security outcomes in West African and U.S. agricultural systems. The U.S. model emphasizes advanced biosecurity infrastructure, heavily mechanized production, and tariff policies shaped by global competitiveness. By contrast, West African systems are characterized by fragmented supply chains, reliance on smallholder farmers, and heightened vulnerability to disease shocks due to weaker veterinary and monitoring frameworks. Simulation results reveal that while tariffs can protect domestic producers in West Africa, they may simultaneously elevate consumer food prices, exacerbating food insecurity in vulnerable populations. Conversely, in the U.S., reduced tariffs paired with strong biosecurity capacity enhance system resilience but may expose domestic markets to external price volatility. The comparative analysis highlights the importance of harmonizing tariff policies with robust animal health measures and adaptive safety nets. Ultimately, the findings underscore that food security is best safeguarded when trade policies are aligned with risk management strategies, ensuring both affordability and stability across diverse agricultural contexts.