Long-term energy and environmental strategies

Abstract

This chapter investigates long-term energy and environmental strategies, employing a regionally disaggregated Dynamic New Earth 21 model (called DNE21) which allows us to derive a normative future image of energy systems through the comprehensive incorporation of forecasted future technologies. This integrated energy system model, explicitly considering the availability of advanced nuclear technologies such as nuclear fuel cycle and fast breeder reactors which can improve the usage efficiency of natural uranium resources, employs computational tools to evaluate the optimal global energy mix compatible with low atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Simulation results in the model indicate that massive CO2 mitigation targets can be achieved with the large-scale deployment of innovative technology, highlighting roles for nuclear, renewables, efficient use of fossil fuel, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The results support the simultaneous pursuit of multiple technologies, rather than focusing merely on realistic technological options based on current perceptions. However, the validity about the expected role of nuclear energy for the future should be critically evaluated in the new technical and political contexts that exist after the Fukushima nuclear accident.