Reliability Investigation of Pavement Performance Evaluation Based on Blind-Number Theory: A Confidence Model

Abstract

The evaluation of in-service pavements’ performance is a complex system that encompasses a variety of uncertain factors. These uncertainties include random, fuzzy, gray, and unascertained information, and their interrelationships are intricate, making comprehensive quantification unachievable. Nonetheless, current highway management organizations rely on a comprehensive indicator, namely, the Pavement Quality Index (PQI), to assess the level of pavement performance. This paper introduces a novel approach that employs blind number theory to evaluate the reliability of pavement performance test data. The proposed method aims to enhance the representativeness of PQI and is demonstrated using detection data from highway asphalt pavements in Hunan Province. The method takes into account the probability distribution characteristics of evaluation metrics and incorporates the blind number representation format of PQI. A confidence model for pavement performance evaluation is established to assess the reliability of pavement detection results. The method also integrates expert empowerment and entropy weight to consider both the subjectivity of evaluation and the objectivity of measured data. The method presented in this study has demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional evaluation index systems. This is attributed to the effective utilization of blind information to accurately characterize the discreteness of pavement performance indexes. Consequently, pavement performance can be quantitatively graded based on anticipated issues and data.