Detecting the ecological footprint of selection

Abstract

The structure of communities is influenced by many ecological and evolutionary processes, but the way these manifest in classic biodiversity patterns often remains unclear. Here we aim to distinguish the ecological footprint of selection-through competition or environmental filtering-from that of neutral processes that are invariant to species identity. We build on existing Massive Eco-evolutionary Synthesis Simulations (MESS), which uses information from three biodiversity axes-species abundances, genetic diversity, and trait variation-to distinguish between mechanistic processes. To correctly detect and characterise competition, we add a new and more realistic form of competition that explicitly compares the traits of each pair of individuals. Our results are qualitatively different to those of previous work in which competition is based on the distance of each individual's trait to the community mean. We find that our new form of competition is easier to identify in empirical data compared to the alternatives. This is especially true when trait data are available and used in the inference procedure. Our findings hint that signatures in empirical data previously attributed to neutrality may in fact be the result of pairwise-acting selective forces. We conclude that gathering more different types of data, together with more advanced mechanistic models and inference as done here, could be the key to unravelling the mechanisms of community assembly and question the relative roles of neutral and selective processes.