Methodologies and Techniques for Determining the Value of an Aircraft

Abstract

Aircraft valuation and the estimation of an accurate aircraft price is undoubtedly a challenging task that has significant consequences for airlines. This paper presents an asset valuation model to show how a series of endogenous as well as exogenous factors can influence the value of an aircraft. Specifically, a discounted cash flow methodology is used to forecast the valuation of an old or new generation aircraft. Both total operating revenue and aircraft operating costs are taken into account to devise a reliable pre-tax profit measurement that is used as the basis of the discounted cash flow analysis. A sensitivity analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to identify which factors have a more significant influence on the suggested aircraft value. Therefore, it addresses how value fluctuates in response to economic fluctuations. Indeed, the calculated value of an aircraft highly depends on the underlying assumptions used. The calculated value is compared with available data in a case study for verification.