Evaluating the robustness of the ARIO model for a local disaster: 2021 flooding in Germany

Abstract

Given the interconnectedness of modern economies and the widespread adoption of just-in-time production methods, even minor disruptions caused by natural disasters can lead to substantial indirect economic impact. A substantial body of literature has explored this phenomenon, using input-output analysis, computable general equilibrium and agent-based models. However, these models (i) heavily rely on parameters and data that often lack empirical grounding or (ii) exhibit considerable uncertainty, making it challenging to assess their reliability. The ARIO model has been widely used in the literature and has provided theoretical foundation for several related models. Using the July 2021 floods in Germany as a case study, we assess the sensitivity of the results of this model by varying key parameters, as well as the multi-regional input-output tables (MRIOTs), which constitute its primary input data. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a new, resource-efficient Python implementation of the ARIO model, enabling the execution of a large number of simulations. Our findings highlight the substantial impact of data source and parameter selection on model outcomes, especially so when post-disaster rebuilding is costly. To ensure the robustness of their results, future studies on indirect economic impacts should be careful about recovery dynamics, consider multiple scenarios and compare results using MRIOTs from various sources.