Who is Most Vulnerable? Exploring Job Vulnerability, Social Distancing and Demand During COVID-19

Abstract

COVID-19 has resulted in global lockdowns, social distancing and demand fluctuations. Existing crisis management research often provides a retrospective account of strategy making after a crisis. Limited studies have explored the factors which aid policy responses during an ongoing crisis. This research helps fill this gap by exploring the influence Covid-19 had on job vulnerability during the first wave of the COVID-19 crisis (spring and summer of 2020). We explore Northern Ireland (NI) which historically has experienced disadvantages. We utilise point-in-time modelling which considers contextual variations. The findings reveal that a reduction in social distancing reduces the vulnerability of over 30,000 jobs, however, ongoing uncertainties regarding demand will have a more significant longer-term impact on job vulnerabilities. We identify how COVID-19 may impact sectors, groups and geographies differently. We provide policy recommendations on how to alleviate the impact COVID-19 has for job vulnerability across the NI economy.