Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise

Abstract

Increased coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels (ESLs) is one of the major hazards related to sea level rise. Estimates of return levels obtained under the framework provided by extreme-event theory might be biased under climatic non-stationarity. Additional uncertainty is related to the choice of the model. In this work, we fit several extreme-value models to two long-term sea level records from Venice (96 years) and Marseille (65 years): a generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution, a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), a point process (PP), the joint probability method (JPM), and the revised joint probability method (RJPM) under different detrending strategies. We model non-stationarity with a linear dependence of the model's parameters on the mean sea level. Our results show that non-stationary GEV and PP models fit the data better than stationary models. The non-stationary PP model is also able to reproduce the rate of extremes occurrence fairly well. Estimates of the return levels for non-stationary and detrended models are consistently more conservative than estimates from stationary, non-detrended models. Different models were selected as being more conservative or having lower uncertainties for the two datasets. Even though the best model is case-specific, we show that non-stationary extremes analyses can provide more robust estimates of return levels to be used in coastal protection planning.