Understanding the influence of teleconnections on Indian summer monsoon rainfall and agricultural productivity: a case study of Haryana, India (1980–2023)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of interaction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) teleconnections on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) in Haryana state, India, from 1980 to 2023. As the second-largest contributor of food grains in India, with 86% of its cultivated area, Haryana is vital for studying the impacts of teleconnections. Results indicate that ENSO has a stronger influence on ISMR than IOD, with significant correlations ranging from-0.69 to-0.15, while IOD correlations were non-significant, ranging from-0.25 to 0.12. During El Niño years with neutral IOD, rainfall reduced by up to 50%, while reductions were less during El Niño with positive IOD. These findings align with vertically integrated moisture transport and convective available potential energy data. The normalized difference vegetation index variation closely follows ISMR variation, indicating higher rainfall benefits vegetation growth while lower rainfall hampers it. Rice (Oryza sativa) cultivation increased, whereas crops like bajra (Pennisetum glaucum), maize (Zea mays), and jowar (Sorghum vulgare) showed varying trends. Regression analysis reveals complex relationships between temperature, rainfall, and crop productivity. This research enhances understanding of climate change effects on ISMR dynamics in Haryana, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to optimize hydrological resource utilization.