Lifetime impact of cash transfer on fertility

Abstract

In most OECD countries, fertility level is below the natural generation replacement level, and many OECD countries implement pro-natal policies, including direct cash transfer schemes. However, evaluations of the long-run impact of such policies are surprisingly rare. We investigate whether the cash transfer increases completed fertility, exploiting a quasi-experiment from a pro-natal cash transfer called Allowance for Newborn Children (ANC). We first devise a measure of ANC impact for different birth cohorts, because the policy lasted for a decade and affected cohorts with different intensities at different ages. The results show that ANC impact on fertility has little permanent component.