Recent advances in tropical climate prediction

Abstract

A review is given of the current status of long-range forecasting in the low latitudes. Promising leads have developed over the past five years in the seasonal forecasting for certain target regions of the Tropics. Various approaches are of interest: (a) empirical methods based on the combination of general circulation diagnostics and statistical techniques; (b) numerical modeling, itself requiring also a diagnostic understanding from empirical analyses; and (c) purely statistical techniques. El Nino and Southern Oscillation are the target of real-time forecasting from purely statistical techniques, as well as the subject of numerical modeling by four different groups. Numerical modeling is also being applied in real-time climate prediction to Sahel and Nordeste. -from Author