Exploratory inference of spatial-temporal data of rainfall in the Brazilian northeast

Abstract

The efficient management of water resources in the Northeast of Brazil is essential in view of the hydrological regime of intermittent rivers, of which many are extremely critical, as they depend on an irregular rainfall regime, both on a monthly and annual time scale. The objective of this study was to determine the spatial and temporal variability of the annual total rainfall, also investigating the regions with similar rainfall patterns by m ultivariate analysis techniques (clusters and principal components) in Brazilian Northeast. Data from total annual rainfall between the years 1995 and 2016, of 37 different INMET weather stations were analyzed, located within the territorial limit of the nine states of Brazilian Northeast. Cluster analysis verified the formation of four distinct groups, with similar precipitation patterns in the regions within the groups as also observed in the principal component analysis. The pattern and/or spatial-temporal variability of rainfall in the municipalities analyzed was shown to be intimately associated with the conditions of the year and climatic anomalies stations, and the factors of land use and occupation, altitude and relief conditions, such as favoring th e formation and stability of minor or major rain in the Brazilian Northeast. Multivariate cluster and principal component analysis identified rainfall patterns and similarities of groups, in the different states of Northeastern Brazil between the years 1995 and 2016.