Properties of Flare-imminent versus Flare-quiet Active Regions from the Chromosphere through the Corona. II. Nonparametric Discriminant Analysis Results from the NWRA Classification Infrastructure (NCI)

Abstract

A large sample of active-region-targeted time-series images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the AIA Active Region Patch database (Paper I) is used to investigate whether parameters describing the coronal, transition region, and chromospheric emission can differentiate a region that will imminently produce a solar flare from one that will not. Parameterizations based on moment analysis of direct and running-difference images provide for physically interpretable results from nonparametric discriminant analysis. Across four event definitions including both 24 hr and 6 hr validity periods, 160 image-based parameters capture the general state of the atmosphere, rapid brightness changes, and longer-term intensity evolution. We find top Brier Skill Scores in the 0.07–0.33 range, True Skill Statistics in the 0.68–0.82 range (both depending on event definition), and Receiver Operating Characteristic Skill Scores above 0.8. Total emission can perform notably, as can steeply increasing or decreasing brightness, although mean brightness measures do not, demonstrating the well-known active-region size/flare productivity relation. Once a region is flare productive, the active-region coronal plasma appears to stay hot. The 94 Å filter data provide the most parameters with discriminating power, with indications that it benefits from sampling multiple physical regimes. In particular, classification success using higher-order moments of running-difference images indicate a propensity for flare-imminent regions to display short-lived small-scale brightening events. Parameters describing the evolution of the corona can provide flare-imminent indicators, but at no preference over “static” parameters. Finally, all parameters and NPDA-derived probabilities are available to the community for additional research.