Integrating geospatial data and analytic hierarchy process for flood-prone zones mapping in the Upper Draa basin, Morocco

Abstract

In this study, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of flood susceptibility in the northern part of the large-scale Draa Oued Noun Basin DON using the modeling approach analytic hierarchy process (AHP). These techniques were applied to integrate key hydrogeological, geomorphological, and geological parameters, identifying areas that are heightened in flood prones. The study evaluates the accuracy and reliability the method in addressing several environmental parameters uncertainty and variability while exploring their combined potential to enhance flood assessment. The results indicate that flood-prone areas are categorized as follows: very low (22.78%), low (26.25%), medium (23.92%), high (16.45%), and very high (10.59%) susceptibility zones. The performance evaluation of AHP-based modeling confirmed its strong discriminatory power, with an AUC value of 0.882 that could identify flood-prone zones with high precision. The current study findings provide actionable recommendations to inform flood mitigation strategies and land-use planning. This study strengthens the long-term management of water supplies and improves disaster resilience, tackling the escalating impacts of environmental shifts and rising anthropogenic pressures.