Atomic blackmail–Russia-Ukraine war and Ramberg’s theory of vulnerability

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine War is being fought between states committed to nuclear power. This paper references Ramberg’s nuclear powerplant (NPP) vulnerability treatise, the IAEA’s Seven Pillars of Safety metric and Pidgeon and O’Leary’s safety imagination approach to assess the safety of Ukrainian and Russian NPPs. It suggests governments should reflect on events in Ukraine, and, with reference to the above-mentioned approaches, decide whether the upside of nuclear power–the largely carbon-neutral production of electricity–outweighs the downside–giving a blackmail opportunity to hostile states. Although a cost-benefit analysis to inform decision-making is effortful, the paper suggests that failure to consider every advantage and disadvantage of nuclear power could prove costly in human and environmental terms. Drawing on Ukraine’s experience, the paper suggests the national interest is best served in time of war by generating electricity in multiple small plants rather than a few large plants.