Bitcoin prediction with a hybrid model

Abstract

In recent years, Bitcoin has become the most widely used blockchain platform in business and finance. The goal of this work is to find a viable prediction model that incorporates and perhaps improves on a combination of available models. Among the techniques utilized in this paper are exponential smoothing, ARIMA, artificial neural networks (ANNs) models, and prediction combination models. The study's most obvious discovery is that artificial intelligence models improve the results of compound prediction models. The second key discovery was that a strong combination forecasting model that responds to the multiple fluctuations that occur in the bitcoin time series and Error improvement should be used. Based on the results, the prediction accuracy criterion and matching curve-fitting in this work demonstrated that if the residuals of the revised model are white noise, the forecasts are unbiased. Future work investigating robust hybrid model forecasting using fuzzy neural networks would be very interesting.