Re-Assessment of Forest Carbon Balance in Southeast Asia: Policy Implications for REDD+

Abstract

Southeast Asia is rich intropical forests and biodiversity but rapid deforestation and forestdegradation have accelerated climate change and threatened sustainabledevelopment in the region. Carbon emission reductions through reducingdeforestation and forest degradation, forest conservation, sustainablemanagement of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) havebeen a focal topic of the climate change mitigation since the Bali in 2007.However, only a handful of studies exist so far on this important issue thatare suitable to inform the debate with estimates of carbon stocks and emissionreductions or removals as a result of REDD+. Our study attempts to analyze thepotential emission reductions and removals for a 35-year period under the REDD+scheme. We start by developing land use change and forest harvesting modelsthat are used to estimate carbon stock changes in natural forests and forestplantations in Southeast Asia. Carbon emissions from deforestation and forestdegradation of natural forests were 1865.1, 1611.4, and 1300.4 TgCO2 year-1, respectively. Witha hypothetical carbon project of 35 years beginning from 2015, carbon emissionreductions were estimated at 817.6 TgCO2 year-1, of which about 10%was from reducing forest degradation. Carbon removals due to increase of forestplantations were 76.3 TgCO2 year-1 butthe removals could be much higher if there is a new definition on theeligibility of forest plantations. Summing up together, about 893.9 TgCO2 of carbon credits could be achievedfrom implementing carbon project in Southeast Asia or about US $6.6 billionannually between 2015 and 2050 if carbon price in 2012 is used. In addition toreducing emissions, there are other benefits from carbon projectimplementation. This study suggests that REDD+ has great potential for reducingcarbon emissions and enhancing carbon stocks in the forests. Without financialincentives, carbon project would not happen and therefore climate change willcontinue to threaten future development.