CATS: A high-performance software framework for simulating plant migration in changing environments

Abstract

Considering local population dynamics and dispersal is crucial to project species' range adaptations in changing environments. Dynamic models including these processes are highly computer intensive, with consequent restrictions on spatial extent and/or resolution. We present CATS, an open-source, extensible modelling framework for simulating spatially and temporarily explicit population dynamics of plants. It can be used in conjunction with species distribution models, or via direct parametrisation of vital rates and allows for fine-grained control over the demographic and dispersal processes' models. The performance and flexibility of CATS is exemplified (i) by modelling the range shift of four plant species under three future climate scenarios across Europe at a spatial resolution of 100 m., and (ii) by exploring consequences of demographic compensation for range expansion on artificial landscapes. The presented software attempts to leverage the availability of computational resources and lower the barrier of entry for large-extent, fine-resolution simulations of plant range shifts in changing environments.