Forecasting the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in China: A Boltzmann function-based modeling study

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Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak is ongoing in China. Here, Boltzmann function-based analyses reveal the potential total numbers of COVID-19 deaths: 3,260 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3187-3394) in China; 110 (95% CI, 109-112) in Hubei Province; 3,174 (95% CI, 3095-3270) outside Hubei; 2,550 (95% CI, 2494-2621) in Wuhan City; and 617 (95% CI, 607-632) outside Wuhan.

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Gao, Y., Zhang, Z., Yao, W., Ying, Q., Long, C., & Fu, X. (2020). Forecasting the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in China: A Boltzmann function-based modeling study. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, 41(7), 841–843. https://doi.org/10.1017/ice.2020.101

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