Types, Modes and Influencing Factors of Urban Shrinkage: Evidence from the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

Following the appearance of urban shrinkage in Western countries, scholars have taken note of increasing amounts of urban shrinkage with significant regional characteristics in China in recent years. Focusing on the Yellow River Basin, this study comprehensively measured prefecture-level and county-level city shrinkage based on China’s fifth, sixth and seventh national census data. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal patterns, types and modes of urban shrinkage were analyzed, and the factors influencing urban shrinkage were explored using a multiple linear regression model and a sorting model. The study results show that the number of shrinking cities and the shrinking degree significantly increased at the prefecture and county levels in the last 20 years. The identified shrinking cities are concentrated in the upper and middle reaches of the river basin, spatially configured around major cities and along the high-speed railway line. The regional pattern shows a typical “core–periphery” characteristic. Peripheral shrinkage is the main mode in which cities shrink. The strength and speed of economic development and industrial transformation positively affect urban shrinkage; the ageing degree, high-speed railway opening and other factors negatively affect urban shrinkage.