Making rigorous causal claims in a real-life context: Has research contributed to sustainable forest management?

Abstract

This article reflects on an evaluation commissioned by the Centre for International Forestry Research, an international research centre working on tropical forests. In the Congo basin, it took from 10 to 20 years for research works to influence the sustainability of forest management through a complex web of interactions between timber companies, national governments, international organizations, development agencies, NGOs, and consultancies. By applying the contribution analysis approach, the evaluation was able to trace several causal pathways which percolated through this web of interactions and resulted in a number of contributions always indirect and marginal but sometimes necessary. The article discusses how contribution claims were inferred from evidence, what the underlying logic of causal arguments was, how some contributions could be qualified as necessary ones, and how far the evaluation went on the way to generalization. The discussion bridges contribution analysis with process tracing and realist evaluation.