Cross-comparative perspectives on global homicide trends

Abstract

Data are available on homicide trends and patterns for 235 countries from six continents from 1950 to 2010. Recent rates range from fewer than 0.5 victim per 100,000 population to 80 and regionally from around one in Scandinavia to around 30 in Central America. Countries that share cultural, political, and social traditions usually have similar crime trends. In Western countries, lethal violence increased in the 1960s through the early 1990s, followed by declines. Elsewhere, trends may have been different as a result of local political configurations and social developments. In eastern Europe, the development of crime was affected by political turmoil after the fall of the Soviet Union and in several Latin American and Caribbean countries by unstable political conditions and the drug industry. Homicide is not decreasing in parts of the Americas and the Caribbean. Cross-sectional analyses confirm the interdependency of lethal violence with socioeconomic and political factors. The level of lethal violence is heavily dependent on the rule of law, the quality and integrity of governance, the level of democracy, and social and economic equality. No signs were detected of the effects of sanctions practices. Use of capital punishment, high rates of imprisonment, and long sentences coincide with high and increasing homicide rates-and not the other way around.