Present status, future trends, and control strategies of invasive alien plants in China affected by human activities and climate change

Abstract

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) have serious environmental and economic impacts, especially in vulnerable areas of China. However, IAP richness distribution patterns, their driving factors, and the dynamic shifts in potential distribution areas remain elusive. We assessed IAP richness distribution patterns and drivers using 402 IAPs recorded in China at 88 926 occurrence points, and then predicted their potential distribution areas. The results show that IAP hotspots were mainly located in southeastern China, especially coastal areas of the South and East and large inland cities. Population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and four climate variables associated with precipitation and temperature jointly influenced the richness distribution pattern of all IAPs. Specifically, population density and GDP impacted the richness distribution pattern of narrow-range IAPs, and population density, GDP, distance to the nearest national highway, and five climate variables affected the richness distribution pattern of widespread IAPs. Only GDP contributed significantly to the richness distribution pattern of the top 5% hotspot grid cells, whereas population density, GDP, and precipitation in the driest month (BIO14) significantly influenced the richness distribution patterns of hotspots for both the top 10% and top 20%. Prediction analysis demonstrated that southeastern China would have particularly high invasion risk under both current and future climate scenarios. Regions with increases in predicted species richness are more common (44.83–64.97%) than those with decreases, except under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Climate change will contribute greatly to the expansion of potential IAP distribution areas under both optimistic (RCP 2.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5). The results of this study provide insights into the priority management of IAPs by developing promising strategies for the control and prevention of IAP invasion.