Spatial implementation of frequency ratio, statistical index and index of entropy models for landslide susceptibility mapping in Al-Balouta river basin, Tartous Governorate, Syria

Abstract

Landslide vulnerability prediction maps are among the most important tools for managing natural hazards associated with slope stability in river basins that affect ecosystems, properties, infrastructure and society. Landslide events are among the most hazardous patterns of slope instability in the coastal mountains of Syria. Thus, the main goals of this research are to evaluate the performance of three different statistical outputs: Frequency Ratio (FR), Statistical Index (SI) and Index of Entropy (IoE) and therefore map landslide susceptibility in the coastal region of Syria. To this end, we identified a total of 446 locations of landslide events, based on the preliminary inventory map derived from fieldwork and high-resolution imagery surveys. In this regard, 13 geo-environmental factors that have a high influence on landslides were selected for landslide susceptibility mapping. The results indicated that the FR method outperformed the SI and IoE models with a high AUC of 0.824 and better adaptability, followed by the SI with 0.791. According to the SCAI values, although the FR model achieved the best reliability, the other two models also showed good capability in determining landslide susceptibility. The result of FR-based modelling showed that 18.51 and 19.98% of the study area fall under the high and very high landslide susceptible categories, respectively. In the map generated by the SI method, about 36% of the study area is classified as having high or very high landslide sensitivity. In the IoE method, whereas 14.18 and 25.62% of the study area were classified as “very high susceptible” and “high susceptible,” respectively. The relative importance analysis demonstrated that the slope aspects, lithology and proximity to roads effectively motivated the acceleration of slope material instability and were the most influential in both the FR and SI models. On the other hand, the IoE model indicated that the proximity to faults and roads, along with the lithology factor, were important influences in the formation of landslide events. As a result, the statistical bivariate models-based landslide mapping provided a reliable and systematic approach to guide the long-term strategic planning procedures in the study area.