Geographic mosaic of selection by avian predators on hindwing warning colour in a polymorphic aposematic moth

Abstract

Warning signals are predicted to develop signal monomorphism via positive frequency-dependent selection (+FDS) albeit many aposematic systems exhibit signal polymorphism. To understand this mismatch, we conducted a large-scale predation experiment in four countries, among which the frequencies of hindwing warning coloration of the aposematic moth, Arctia plantaginis, differ. Here we show that selection by avian predators on warning colour is predicted by local morph frequency and predator community composition. We found +FDS to be the strongest in monomorphic Scotland and lowest in polymorphic Finland, where the attack risk of moth morphs depended on the local avian community. +FDS was also found where the predator community was the least diverse (Georgia), whereas in the most diverse avian community (Estonia), hardly any models were attacked. Our results support the idea that spatial variation in predator communities alters the strength or direction of selection on warning signals, thus facilitating a geographic mosaic of selection.