Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

Abstract

Future changes in atmospheric composition and consequent global and regional climate change are of increasing concern to policy makers, planners and the public. However, predictions of these changes are uncertain. In the absence of single, firm predictions, the next best approach is to identify sets of plausible future conditions termed scenarios. This paper focuses on the development of climate change scenarios for northern high latitude regions. Three methods of scenario development can be identified: use of analogues having conditions similar to those expected in the study region, application of general circulation model results, and composite methods that combine information from different sources. A composite approach has been used to produce scenarios ot temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide and sea-level change for Finland up to 2100, as part of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Tools for applying these scenarios in impact assessment studies, including stochastic weather generators and spatial downscaling techniques, are also examined. The SILMU scenarios attempt to capture uncertainties both in future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere and in the global climate response to these emissions. Two types of scenario were developed: (i) simple "policy-oriented" scenarios and (ii) detailed "scientific" scenarios. These are compared with new model estimates of future climate and recent observed changes in climate over certain high latitude regions.