Forecasts for a post-Roe America: The effects of increased travel distance on abortions and births

Abstract

I compile novel data measuring county-level travel distances to abortion facilities and resident abortion rates from 2009 through 2020. Using these data, I implement a difference-in-difference research design measuring the effects of driving distance to the nearest abortion facility on abortions and births. The results indicate large but diminishing effects: an increase from 0 to 100 miles is estimated to reduce abortion rates by 19.4% and increase birth rates by 2.2%, while the next 100 miles reduces abortions by an additional 12.8% and increases births by an additional 1.6%. Based on this evidence, I forecast the effects of post-Roe abortion bans on abortion rates by county, state, and region. In a scenario in which total abortion bans take effect in 24 states, about one-quarter of residents seeking abortions are predicted to become trapped by distance and about three-quarters of those who are trapped are predicted to give birth as a result.