Projecting Malaria Incidence Based on Climate Change Modeling Approach: A Systematic Review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Climate change will affect the transmission of malaria by shifting the geographical space of the vector. AIM: The review aims to examine the climate change modeling approach and climatic variables used for malaria projection. METHODS: Articles were systematically searched from four databases, Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and SAGE. The PICO concept was used for formulation search and PRISMA approach to identify the final articles. RESULTS: A total of 27 articles were retrieved and reviewed. There were six climate factors identified in this review: Temperature, rainfall/precipitation, humidity, wind, solar radiation, and climate change scenarios. Modeling approaches used to project future malarial trend includes mathematical and computational approach. CONCLUSION: This review provides robust evidence of an association between the impact of climate change and malaria incidence. Prediction on seasonal patterns would be useful for malaria surveillance in public health prevention and mitigation strategies.