The influence of the value of children on the fertility intentions of people of childbearing age in China

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to explore the mechanisms through which the multidimensional reconstruction of childbearing values in the post-pandemic era influences fertility intentions among Chinese individuals of reproductive age, while elucidating the interplay between economic rationality and cultural norms in fertility decision-making, thereby providing theoretical foundations for targeted fertility policy formulation. Methods: Utilizing data from the 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we analyzed a sample of 1,758 individuals of reproductive age. Factor analysis was employed to extract three dimensions of childbearing values—psychological affection, economic utility, and familial responsibility. A logistic regression model incorporating control variables (gender, household registration, education, etc.) was constructed, followed by heterogeneity analyses across demographic subgroups. Results: All three dimensions of childbearing values exhibited significant positive effects on fertility intentions, with familial responsibility demonstrating the strongest impact (coefficient = 0.249, p < 0.01). Heterogeneity analysis revealed that psychological affection predominantly influenced females (coefficient = 0.316, p < 0.05) and rural populations, while economic utility exerted a pronounced effect on high-income groups (coefficient = 0.306, p < 0.05). Educational attainment consistently enhanced fertility intentions (coefficient = 0.206, p < 0.01). Conclusion: Fertility decisions emerge as a dynamic interplay between cultural values and resource endowments. Sustainable enhancement of fertility intentions necessitates differentiated policy interventions that reinforce familial responsibility, alleviate economic constraints, and address emotional needs.