Super typhoons Hato and Mangkhut, part II: challenges in forecasting and early warnings

Abstract

This is the second paper of a two-part series about Super Typhoons Hato (1713) and Mangkhut (1822), which hit Hong Kong successively in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and necessitated the issuance of the highest tropical cyclone warning signal. While their maximum intensity and wind structure are analysed in Part I, this paper covers the challenges in forecasting and early warning of the storms. The actual and predicted tropical cyclone track, intensity and storm surge in Hong Kong and their associated storm surge risk are reviewed. Experience in early warning and disaster risk reduction is also shared in this paper.