Technology Forecasting: A Case Study of Software Technology Product Families

Abstract

With increasing use of computers, information and communication technologies, some software technologies products become part of everyday life. Many reports shows that use of desktop and mobile operating systems, search engines, web browsers, web servers and programming languages are increasing rapidly. This paper focuses on forecasting growth pattern of selected software technology product families using market share as indicator. Results of four growth curve methods namely Logistic, Gompertz, Log Logistic and Mono-Molecular are compared using MAD and RMSE error measures. For the period under consideration, majority software product families follow increasing / decreasing growth pattern. Results indicate that industry of respective technology product remain dominated by few providers for year 2025. Monopoly or oligopoly market structure will lead to long increasing period for the top providers.