Statistical and deterministic analysis of covid-19 spread in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

As all countries around the world, Saudi Arabia has been affected by the spread of covid-19 that started in a Chinese city by the end of December 2019. The impact of spread can be evaluated in different levels, loss of life as the country has already recorded more than 7500 deaths, the impacts on Saudi economy, schooling systems and many others sectors that have been impacted. The main aim of this work is to provide a statistical and deterministic analysis on the spread of covid-19 within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Statistical investigation on collected data were performed, including fitting of data using some statistical distributions, seven days moving average for deaths, recovered and infected. Additionally, a simple SIR mathematical model based on the concept of piecewise modeling, where the model is defined within interval with the aim to capture the crossover displaying by the spread within the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.