Different precipitation response over land and ocean to orbital and greenhouse gas forcing

Abstract

Various proxies suggest a nearly in-phase variation of monsoons with local summer insolation. Oceanic proxies of monsoons document a more complex response. Climate model simulations also indicate that the response is different over land and ocean. Here using a transient simulation by a climate model over the last 22,000 years we have unraveled the factors that lead to these differences within the Indian subcontinent. We show that during the deglacial (22–12 ka) precipitation over India and the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are in phase, whereas they are out of phase across the Holocene (∼ 12 ka to 0 ka). During the deglacial, water vapor amplifies the effect of solar forcing on precipitation over both the regions, whereas contributions from surface latent heat fluxes over the BoB drive an opposite response across the Holocene. We find that greenhouse gas forcing drives similar precipitation response over land and ocean, whereas orbital forcing produces a different response over land and ocean. We have further demonstrated that during periods of abrupt climate change [such as the Bølling–Allerød (∼ 14 ka)], water vapor affects precipitation mainly through its influence on the vertical stability of the atmosphere. These results highlight the complex nature of precipitation over the BoB and thus has implications for the interpretation of monsoon proxies.