Examining the association of economic development with intercity multimodal transport demand in China: A focus on spatial autoregressive analysis

Abstract

Transportation is generally perceived as a catalyst for economic development. This has been highlighted in previous studies. However, less attention has been paid to examine the relationship between economy and transport demand by exploring spatially cross-sectional data, especially for countries with significant regional economic imbalance, like China. In this article, we assess the economic influence of intercity multimodal transport demand at the prefecture level in China. Spatial autoregressive regression models are used to examine the impact of transport demand on economy by deep analysis of transport modes (land, air, and water) and regions (eastern, central, and western). Through contrasting results from spatial lag model and spatial error model with those from the ordinary least square, this study finds that the estimation results can become more accurate by controlling for spatial autocorrelation, especially at the national level. Through rigorous analysis it is identified that except for water passenger traffic, all other intercity transport demand significantly contribute to a city's economic development level in gross domestic product. In particular, air transport demands distribute more evenly and are estimated with the highest beta coefficients at both national and regional levels. In addition, the beta coefficients for land, air and water transportation are estimated with different magnitudes and significances at the national and regional levels. This study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the relationship between intercity multimodal transport demand and economic development level. Findings from this paper provide planning makers with valid and efficient strategies to better develop the economy by leveraging the special "a" cluster pattern of economic development and the benefits of air transportation.