"if You Build It, They Will Come." Infrastructure, Hegemonic Transition, and Peaceful Change

Abstract

Hegemonic transition is typically associated with major power war. Relatively neglected is its association of systemic change with shifts in material and social infrastructure. This article develops a structural power model that highlights the importance of infrastructure to hegemonic control. It shows how the provision of systemic infrastructure connects the key structures of power in the international system, creating path dependencies and imposing switching costs. Using the example of China's infrastructure-led grand strategy, we show how a new pathway to peaceful hegemonic change may become available through infrastructure provision, as existing infrastructure is repurposed, alternatives are provided, and new infrastructure at the leading edge of technological change is built to cater for the requirements of the future.