Sea level rise impact on atoll Islands: Implication to SDG 6

Abstract

Low-lying atoll islands that depend heavily on fresh groundwater for survival are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR), which calls for appropriate climate action SDG 13. As the sea level rises, the associated increase in surface seawater inundation and subsurface saltwater intrusion will reduce the availability of fresh groundwater due to permanent salinization of groundwater with corresponding thinning of freshwater lens. This paper provides scientific insights on how freshwater lens in atoll islands respond to SLR. Simulations on saturated-unsaturated variable-density groundwater flow with salt transport are performed by the groundwater flow and solute transport model SUTRA (Saturated-Unsaturated Transport) developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Model simulations and statistical analyses suggest that freshwater lens thickness depends mainly on groundwater recharge rate, island size and aquifer hydraulic conductivity. The impact of various geo-hydrologic parameters on fresh groundwater sustainability is then analyzed to explore feasibility of increasing groundwater recharge through rainwater harvesting, as a mitigation measure. The implication to the achievement of sustainable clean water and sanitation for all (SDG 6) is also discussed.