Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade is in Intermediate Services

Abstract

This article contests the idea that the world has entered a post-globalization era. It argues that rapid globalization has evolved rather than ended. Even though the global goods trade-to-GDP ratio reached its zenith 15 years ago, the rapid rise of services trade has persisted and now accounts for one-fifth of international commerce. The paper makes a statistical and logical case that the future of trade lies in services trade—especially trade in intermediate services.