Monetary policy and risk of commercial banks in Vietnam

Abstract

This study investigates the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission by comprehensively analyzing multiple bank risk measurements amid monetary policy shocks in Vietnam. Using banking data for 2008–2021, a dynamic panel model is estimated to examine the risk exposure of 30 Vietnamese commercial banks. The paper employs the annual M2 money supply growth as a monetary policy variable, besides two policy interest rates established by the central bank. We find that an expansion of monetary policy benefits the quality of loan portfolios; however, reduced interest rates or an extended money supply increase insolvency risk. We also document that heightened economic growth corresponds to a reduced likelihood of credit and insolvency risks, while a surge in the inflation rate leads to an escalation in insolvency risk, manifested by a decline in the Z-score index. Overall, the findings on different risk dimensions in this paper are expected to draw a comprehensive picture of banks’ risk appetite and behavior in response to monetary changes.