The stability of conditional Markov processes and Markov chains in random environments

Abstract

We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this conditional signal is weakly ergodic when the signal is ergodic and the observations are nondegenerate. This permits a delicate exchange of the intersection and supremum of σ-fields, which is key for the stability of the nonlinear filter and partially resolves a long-standing gap in the proof of a result of Kunita [J. Multivariate Anal. 1 (1971) 365-393]. A similar result is obtained also in the continuous time setting. The proofs are based on an ergodic theorem for Markov chains in random environments in a general state space. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2009.