Demographic decline, pragmatic talk: Local immigration discourse under demographic pressure in South Korea

Abstract

As South Korea faces unprecedented demographic decline, marked by the world's lowest fertility rate and rapid population aging, immigration has begun to feature in local political discourse. This study analyzes more than two decades of official council proceedings across administrative districts to examine whether demographic conditions influence rhetorical engagement with immigration, and whether such discourse exhibits ideological polarization. Using computational text analysis, the findings show that lower total fertility rates and population stagnation are associated with increased references to immigration, but not with greater partisan divergence in sentiment. Rather than serving as a site of ideological contestation, immigration tends to be addressed in pragmatic terms, often linked to labor shortages and regional sustainability. These results suggest that under conditions of centralized immigration policy, limited migrant presence, and acute demographic pressure, immigration can acquire salience in local politics without becoming a polarizing issue. This study contributes to broader debates on political demography and political responsiveness.