Relationship between winter precipitation in Barents-Kara seas and September-October eastern Siberian Sea Ice anomalies

Abstract

In this study, we applied the 1988-2017 monthly average sea ice concentration data from the Met Office Hadley Centre and the 1988-2017 monthly average reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis II to analyze the relationship between the winter precipitation in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) and the previous autumn eastern Siberian Sea ice anomalies. Through the correlation analysis, we found that the correlation between eastern Siberian Sea ice and the BKS winter precipitation was strongest in September and weakest in November. The results indicated that, when the eastern Siberian Sea ice extent decreased in September-October, a significant positive geopotential height anomaly would occur in the coming winter (December-February) in the Norwegian-Barents region. This result in turn caused anomalies in the northward meridional wind. Consequently, the anomalous water vapor from the mid-latitude Atlantic to the Arctic passed through the Greenland Sea before finally reaching the BKS. The meridional wind also caused the temperature in said seas to increase and the BKS ice to melt, leading to an increase of winter precipitation. We also found that the increase of the Siberian high (SH) in winter was related to the decrease of autumn East Siberian Sea ice extent and the increase of the winter BKS precipitation anomaly. Further research still needs to be refined for this issue in future studies.