Validation and comparison of the stroke prognosis instrument (SPI-II) and the essen stroke risk score (ESRS) in predicting stroke recurrence in Asian population

Abstract

Background: Currently, there are limited data on the accuracy of available risk scores to predict stroke recurrence in the Asian population. Method: A single-center, retrospective cohort study was conducted among patients with acute ischemic stroke during January 2014 - December 2018. Longitudinal data with three years of follow-up among these patients were collected and validated through both electronic and manual chart review. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) method or C-statistic and calibration plot were used to evaluate and compare the Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI-II) and the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) in predicting the long-term risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. The predictive performances of the two scores were compared using DeLong’s method. Results: The study cohort consisted of 543 patients, including 181 and 362 patients with and without recurrent events. There were no significant differences in mean age and gender between the two groups. Recurrence cases tended to have significant more risk factors compared to those without events. Among cases with recurrent events, 134 (74.03%) and 65.74% (119) cases were classified as high-risk based on SPI-II and ESRS, respectively. The AUROC curve of the SPI-II and ESRS score was 0.646 (95% CI, 0.594–0.697) and 0.614 (95%CI, 0.563–0.665), respectively (p = 0.394). Based on the calibration plot, the SPI-II and ESRS scores showed similar moderate predictive performance on recurrence stroke with a C statistic (95% CI) of 0.655 (95% CI: 0.603–0.707) and 0.631 (95% CI 0.579–0.684), respectively. Conclusion: Both ESRS and SPI-II scores had moderate predictive performance in Thai population.