Polish Steel Production Under Conditions of Decarbonization—Steel Volume Forecasts Using Time Series and Multiple Linear Regression

Abstract

This paper will discuss the dynamics of steel production in Poland in light of the forecasts of tendencies under conditions of decarbonization. The research presented will be an attempt, using data from 2006 to 2023, to create econometric models and forecast production volumes until 2028, along with influencing factors. The obtained models were compared by calculating their error metrics. Based on the conducted econometric models, the critical determinants of the decarbonization of the industry have been established. Forecasts of the volume of steel production in Poland are downward in the face of the increasingly clear emphasis on strategic investments in low-emission technologies. This paper consists of two research parts. The first concerns the forecasting of steel production volume, and the second concerns the modeling of the steel production process, taking into account the key determinants of technological processes (EAF and BOF). Forecasts were calculated for each econometric model. This analysis is a contribution to a broader discussion on industrial adaptation and sustainable development in the steel sector. The developed models and forecasts can provide decision-makers and industry stakeholders with important information at the stage of the decision-making process concerned with developing a strategy for the decarbonization of steelmaking processes. In Poland, two technologies of steel production are used: BOF and EAF. In accordance with the assumptions of deep decarbonization, BF-BOF technology must be replaced by DRI-EAF technology.