Estimation of Ganciclovir Exposure in Adults Transplant Patients by Machine Learning

Abstract

Introduction: Valganciclovir, a prodrug of ganciclovir (GCV), is used to prevent cytomegalovirus infection after transplantation, with doses adjusted based on creatinine clearance (CrCL) to target GCV AUC0-24 h of 40–60 mg*h/L. This sometimes leads to overexposure or underexposure. This study aimed to train, test and validate machine learning (ML) algorithms for accurate GCV AUC0-24 h estimation in solid organ transplantation. Methods: We simulated patients for different dosing regimen (900 mg/24 h, 450 mg/24 h, 450 mg/48 h, 450 mg/72 h) using two literature population pharmacokinetic models, allocating 75% for training and 25% for testing. Simulations from two other literature models and real patients provided validation datasets. Three independent sets of ML algorithms were created for each regimen, incorporating CrCL and 2 or 3 concentrations. We evaluated their performance on testing and validation datasets and compared them with MAP-BE. Results: XGBoost using 3 concentrations generated the most accurate predictions. In testing dataset, they exhibited a relative bias of -0.02 to 1.5% and a relative RMSE of 2.6 to 8.5%. In the validation dataset, a relative bias of 1.5 to 5.8% and 8.9 to 16.5%, and a relative RMSE of 8.5 to 9.6% and 10.7% to 19.7% were observed depending on the model used. XGBoost algorithms outperformed or matched MAP-BE, showing enhanced generalization and robustness in their estimates. When applied to real patients’ data, algorithms using 2 concentrations showed relative bias of 1.26% and relative RMSE of 12.68%. Conclusions: XGBoost ML models accurately estimated GCV AUC0-24 h from limited samples and CrCL, providing a strategy for optimized therapeutic drug monitoring.