Flood frequency analysis in sabarmati river basin and estimation of peak discharge under climate change scenario

Abstract

Due to climate change, there is an increased/decreased frequency of peak flood discharge in river and streams. The most important concern of planning is to safe passing of the extreme flood discharge influenced by extreme climatic changes. It is a concern for planning for the storage capacity to safely store extreme discharge/inflow of the river. In this paper, probability theories and statistics for flood frequency factor (K) are applied and based on the results; it is found that the Extreme value model results in to a best model for frequency factor K, as it is yielding the minimum relative error. Using the frequency factor, the flood frequency analysis for peak flood is carried out for climate change scenario/Advance scenario. The peak discharge in advance scenario is more as compare to the base line scenario at most of the stations except three stations located on the south-east of the Sabarmati river basin.