Crown fire potential in lodgepole pine forests during the red stage of mountain pine beetle attack

Abstract

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreakswithin the previous 10-15 years have affectedmillions of hectares of lodgepole pine forests inwestern North America. Concerns about the influence of recent treemortality on changes in fire behaviour amongst firefighters and fire managers have led researchers to attempt to quantify the effects on crown firepotential. Inthispaperweprovideanup-to- datereviewandcritiqueof researchthathasendeavouredtoquantify the effect of recent MPB-caused treemortality, during the red stage, on crown fire potential based upon quantitative descriptions ofimportant crown and canopy fuel characteristics andsimulation-basedassessments of crown fire initiation and spread using operational and physics-based models.While significant progress has beenmade in characterizingthe important variables affectingcrown fire potential inrecentlyattacked forests,we suggest thatmanyof the conclusions drawn fromsimulation-based studies conducted to-date are suspect given the use of inappropriate and/or un-validatedmodels. A systematic programof experimental burning, the monitoring and documentation of wildfires and prescribed fires, and bettermodels of fuelmoisture and fuel structure are urgently needed in order to properly assess crown fire potential in lodgepole pine forests recently attacked by the MPB. © 2014 © Institute of Chartered Foresters, 2014. All rights reserved.